Module 3: Assessment

When the population at risk is roughly constant, incidence is measured as:

Number of new cases: Population at risk×time during which cases were ascertained

Sometimes measurement of incidence is complicated by changes in the population at risk during the period when cases are ascertained, for example, through births, deaths, or migrations. This difficulty is overcome by relating the numbers of new cases to the person years at risk, calculated by adding together the periods during which each individual member of the population is at risk during the measurement period.

It should be noted that once a person is classified as a case, he or she is no longer liable to become a new case, and therefore should not contribute further person years at risk. Sometimes the same pathological event happens more than once to the same individual. In the course of a study, a patient may have several episodes of myocardial infarction. In these circumstances the definition of incidence is usually restricted to the first event, although sometimes (for example in the study of infectious diseases) it is more appropriate to count all episodes. When ambiguity is possible reports should state whether incidence refers only to first diagnosis or to all episodes, as this may influence interpretation. For example, gonorrhoea notification rates in England and Wales increased dramatically during the 1960s, but no one knows to what extent this was due to more people getting infected or to the same people getting infected more often.